Who Says Technicals Do Not Work?

An interesting move in Soybeans last night. The market finished limit down with heavy offers. It looked nothing but bearish. The reopen saw the market trade down 15pts pretty quickly. Then a retrace to cover the gap, resistance at spot on 1669 held and the market fell always again. Classic textbook technicals. Sometimes trading is that simple.

DV01 Pricing Tools

Here are a couple of tools we use in the analysis of note and bond markets.

When is a Spread not a Spread

Spread trading is more an art than a science, but there are a few common traps we often see new traders fall into. Mistake#1 seems to be a particularly popular one…

Bond Futures Reaction to RBA Rate Decision – July 2012

Well this is not the most exciting of reactions, but it’s a good video to watch if you are new to trading SFE bonds and new to watching depth. The video shows how the volume thins out before announcements and how volume comes back after the release.

Correlation and Lag Trades

Gold and Crude Oil in normal day to day movements are not overly correlated. They do not move tick for tick or take a lead from one another as strongly as the 10yr note and the 30yr bond. However during times of volatility, that correlation can increase and they do start following each other. Additionally, it’s not uncommon to see one market lag behind the other when volatility picks up. Here is a good example…

Trading Gaps with Projected Values

The good thing about correlated markets that open and close at different times is the potential for gap trades. The opening gap will occur when one market makes a decent move while the other is closed. Once that second market opens, you’ll most likely see a gap in the direction that the first market has moved. This article will show you how to project an open and therefore determine if a trading opportunity exists.

Stops Right There

There are a few ways to approach stop orders – and placing them manually. Each have their positive and negatives. Let’s say you’re the market is trading 45/46 (45bid and 46offered). You have your buy stop at 50. Method 1: Hit the offer As soon as the market goes higher and 50 is the best offer, trade out at market. …

The Rolling of the SPI

You may be seeing some large numbers go through Time & Sales this week in SPI. These are positions rolling from March to June expiry. Typically this happens in the week or so leading up to the front month expiry. What you are probably seeing is large numbers going through Time & Sales, but not actually trading. This is 100% …

Market Immunity

Both SPI and bonds hardly moved after it was announced PM Gillard would keep her job today. The last leadership challenge was a positive for the market, although we did then have a leadership change. Still ‘political certainty’ is generally as positive for the market. All in all, it shows how the market can grow immune to things after it …

Rate Cut Probabilities

When discussing upcoming rate cuts, you’ll often hear news services talk of the ‘probability’ of a cut or what the market has factored in. For the Australian market, here is how to calculate the probability. The cash rate futures trades on the SFE settle at the end of the month at a price that equals the average cash rate for …