Can We Rely On Estimates For The NFP Release?

Here is a little bit of research on the NFP data. We compare estimates versus actuals and plot the ZN market reaction accordingly.

This chart tells us two really interesting things:

1. The actual data compared to the estimates is not a reliable indicator of market direction.

2. The release date appears to be a very reliable indicator of trend reversal.

That has a HUGE impact on trading strategy around important data such as the Payrolls. Heve a look at the chart to see what I mean. There are many instances of the payrolls date simply being a time of reversal.

Click to expand image.

NFP

The full details of this study is at TradingCourses.com as part of the How to Trade Payrolls Data course.