Trump Trading Tactics

Those that have trained with me know I like asking that question: what is the market trying to do? I cannot remember where I picked it up. I think I overheard another trader saying it one day a long time ago. The idea, well my idea at least, is to stop you from getting too caught up in your own …

RBA Rates Decision Nov 2016

This is a short film of a our bonds over a recent RBA announcement. As with the June update, the RBA was expected to keep rates unchanged, but there was a small amount factored in for a cut. A ‘no change’ announcement of would therefore be ‘slightly’ price bearish. The thing to take away is there was plenty of time …

A Talk on Economics, Debt and Global Economies

This is a video filmed at the Genesis Trading office in Sydney. The presenter is Erik Norland, Senior Economist & Executive Director from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. It’s a very interesting presentation on current global debt levels and how this is affecting current and future interest rates. Download the Powerpoint slides here: fia-september-2016-2

Trading Bonds Post Election

It’s the Monday after the Aussie Federal Election. It was an election that has so far drawn a bang on 50:50 result. As at Monday afternoon, we are still don’t know who the winner is. So how do you play that in the market. Well over the weekend, there were several newspaper stories suggesting Australia could lose its AAA rating. …

RBA Leaves Rates on Hold June 2016

This is a short film of a our bonds over a recent RBA announcement. The RBA was expected to keep rates unchanged, but there was a small amount factored in for a cut. A ‘no change’ announcement of would therefore be ‘slightly’ price bearish. The video is a bit slow, but it is interesting to see to how the depth …

DV01 Pricing Tools

Here are a couple of tools we use in the analysis of note and bond markets.

Some Thoughts on Corn

1. I saw some interesting stats the other day comparing 2012 with 1988 (chart below). Back then there were similar estimates for poor quality crops. Prices almost doubled then. We’ve gained only about 60% this year by comparison. That said the dollar value of the gain this time is more than double that of 1988. On one hand you could …

Watch the Sky for a Corn Trade

I came across this chart in my travels. It’s quite an interesting one. It shows the relationship between the time a corn crop is planted and the subsequent yield. Contrary to popular thought, it shows early planting (i.e. early April) has little effect on yield, but late planting (i.e. May or after) has a dramatically negative impact.   Chart source: …

Market Immunity

Both SPI and bonds hardly moved after it was announced PM Gillard would keep her job today. The last leadership challenge was a positive for the market, although we did then have a leadership change. Still ‘political certainty’ is generally as positive for the market. All in all, it shows how the market can grow immune to things after it …

Rate Cut Probabilities

When discussing upcoming rate cuts, you’ll often hear news services talk of the ‘probability’ of a cut or what the market has factored in. For the Australian market, here is how to calculate the probability. The cash rate futures trades on the SFE settle at the end of the month at a price that equals the average cash rate for …

30 Minutes on Futures

This 30-minute video provides a basic introduction to futures in easy-to-understand language. It is presented by Dan Gramza, a world-renowned futures industry expert known for his teaching and trading expertise.