Trump Trading Tactics

Those that have trained with me know I like asking that question: what is the market trying to do? I cannot remember where I picked it up. I think I overheard another trader saying it one day a long time ago. The idea, well my idea at least, is to stop you from getting too caught up in your own …

Sweet Divergence

Here is a nice little chart in Sugar. It shows the May-Oct spread on top and the May contract below. May and October are in different crop cycles, so this is an old-new crop spread. The interesting thing here is how the spread was following the underlying, as you’d expect. Then it stopped and made a good case for a …

Trading The Obvious

In a recent update we looked at a spread trade in Corn, citing the upside move was overdone and the spread had the potential to narrow dramatically. See here. Over the last few weeks, the spread has done exactly that. This illustrates a very interesting point – unexplainable or extreme moves are often followed by very obvious moves. As traders …

Who Says Technicals Do Not Work?

An interesting move in Soybeans last night. The market finished limit down with heavy offers. It looked nothing but bearish. The reopen saw the market trade down 15pts pretty quickly. Then a retrace to cover the gap, resistance at spot on 1669 held and the market fell always again. Classic textbook technicals. Sometimes trading is that simple.

Relative Stock Performance

It’s interesting to see how the Aussie market has performed compared with the US. The chart shows the S&P (black line) and the ASX200 futures adjusted for the change in the currency. From the recent peak, the S&P has lost 12% and the adjusted Aussie market has lost 27%. So why the difference? That resources tax? RBA minutes? Weakness in …

One for the S&P Bears…

I just read something interesting regarding the current outlook for the S&P. Keep in mind that no matter where we are in the market cycle, there are always extreme bears and extreme bulls. One must keep individual views or stats in the right perspective. However, these are some interesting numbers. The 200 Day Moving Average is often used as a …