Bond Futures Reaction to RBA Rate Decision – July 2012

Well this is not the most exciting of reactions, but it’s a good video to watch if you are new to trading SFE bonds and new to watching depth. The video shows how the volume thins out before announcements and how volume comes back after the release.

Correlation and Lag Trades

Gold and Crude Oil in normal day to day movements are not overly correlated. They do not move tick for tick or take a lead from one another as strongly as the 10yr note and the 30yr bond. However during times of volatility, that correlation can increase and they do start following each other. Additionally, it’s not uncommon to see one market lag behind the other when volatility picks up. Here is a good example…

Trading Gaps with Projected Values

The good thing about correlated markets that open and close at different times is the potential for gap trades. The opening gap will occur when one market makes a decent move while the other is closed. Once that second market opens, you’ll most likely see a gap in the direction that the first market has moved. This article will show you how to project an open and therefore determine if a trading opportunity exists.

The Rolling of the SPI

You may be seeing some large numbers go through Time & Sales this week in SPI. These are positions rolling from March to June expiry. Typically this happens in the week or so leading up to the front month expiry. What you are probably seeing is large numbers going through Time & Sales, but not actually trading. This is 100% …

Market Immunity

Both SPI and bonds hardly moved after it was announced PM Gillard would keep her job today. The last leadership challenge was a positive for the market, although we did then have a leadership change. Still ‘political certainty’ is generally as positive for the market. All in all, it shows how the market can grow immune to things after it …

One Way to Fix Randomly Wrong Trades

Guy, I am having a tough week. This weird cycle I have since many weeks ago keeps happening and I need to break it. Somehow, I will be up early in the day, then mistakes start happening. I have noticed that nothing is different about my psychology, and my thinking (NO revenge trading etc), but just randomly wrong. What can I do?

A Simple Spread in Crude Oil

Here is an interesting pattern in Crude Oil calendar spreads. The recent sell off in Crude was sharp and violent and suggested bear spreads (short near month, long far deferred) would benefit. Interestingly, bear spread took a long time to react, almost as if it was waiting for the market to hold lower levels before playing catch up. Firstly, check …

What is seasonal trading?

Question: What is seasonal data? Answer: The ProTrader Digest uses seasonal data in every trade selection. Seasonality refers to a pattern that depends on, or is controlled by, the time of the year. Seasonality appears in many places. For example, sales of Christmas cards logically peak before Christmas. Accounting business peaks around end of the financial year. Sales of red …

Meet the Greeks – Part 2

In this article, we move a little further down the track and look at how changes in other factors can affect an option. For any option trader, it is interesting information, but more importantly essential in understanding the risk in a position.

Meet the Greeks – Part 1

(Originally published in Active Trader magazine) What a boring game all this would be if option prices showed no fluctuations! The price, or premium, of an option is constantly changing for whatever reason. As an options trader you must be prepared, armed with the knowledge of how an option price can react in certain scenarios. You can look at that …